MANIFOLD
BrowseUS ElectionNewsAbout
The % of people who will think top AI firms are racing in 2026 (Resolves to Yes/Probably on poll)
Mini
9
Ṁ115
2026
62%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL

Are top AI firms currently racing?

Yes Probably Probably Not No

To my twitter @nathanpmyoung

Get Ṁ1,000 play money
1 Comment
Sort by:

What will the specific wording of the poll question be? Where will it be posted/who's its audience?

Related questions

In 2028, will AI be a top 3 political issue for voters?
+8% 1d50% chance
Will >90% of Elon re/tweets/replies on 19 December 2025 be about AI risk?
5% chance
In 2025, what % of EA lists "AI risk" as their top cause?
46% chance
Will American opinion of AI improve in 2026, according to Gallup?
33% chance
At the beginning of 2027, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?
69% chance
What will be the top 3 AI labs in 2025?
At the beginning of 2026, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?
73% chance
Will any of these 7 markets about game-playing AI resolve YES in 2025?
47% chance
Will AI be considered safe in 2030? (resolves to poll)
72% chance
In 2027 when polled, respondents will agree that "compute really matters in AI"
89% chance

Related questions

In 2028, will AI be a top 3 political issue for voters?
50% chance
What will be the top 3 AI labs in 2025?
Will >90% of Elon re/tweets/replies on 19 December 2025 be about AI risk?
5% chance
At the beginning of 2026, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?
73% chance
In 2025, what % of EA lists "AI risk" as their top cause?
46% chance
Will any of these 7 markets about game-playing AI resolve YES in 2025?
47% chance
Will American opinion of AI improve in 2026, according to Gallup?
33% chance
Will AI be considered safe in 2030? (resolves to poll)
72% chance
At the beginning of 2027, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?
69% chance
In 2027 when polled, respondents will agree that "compute really matters in AI"
89% chance
BrowseElectionNewsAbout