@Tumbles Big sell off occurring

@mods @Nightsquared So it seems Tumble's cat paid Manifold 10 mana. Does that really count as him paying back any of his loan to Manifold? Can someone else or some other animal really pay back 10 mana just to win the bet above?

@HillaryClinton Speaking as a user, not as a moderator, Tumbles has been pretty clear that Orangey is not him, so I don't think that should count.

Speaking as a moderator, this will resolve however the creator thinks is right.

@Gabrielle ahh but check out the description:

"I expect to rely on statements from Manifold and Tumbles for some resolutions"

So manifold does have some say if they consider the loan partially paid back by Tumbles or not.

@HillaryClinton Hmm, good point. I suppose that'll be a question for the Manifold staff. I can't really speak for Manifold as far as that goes.

@Gabrielle just so everyone knows,

@IsaacKing had some communication with the cat, tipped him 69 Mana and then the cat paid back 10 Mana to Manifold.

Since neither of them are Tumbles, I think the question that needs to be answered is does Tumbles need to pay back the loan, or can it be paid back from any user, friend or stranger on behalf of Tumbles.

To me it seems like a cop out for someone who is not Tumbles to pay back an immaterial amount for the sole purpose of winning this market.

If @Nightsquared intended for this to be a manipulation market and @Manifold considers the loan partially paid back by Tumbles, then I won't complain. It just seems like too much of a stretch.

@HillaryClinton I believe the cat to be operating as an authorized agent of Tumbles for financial purposes. Tumbles' profile states as much:

mana can be exchanged for sexual favors

oh bring this back for sure

It was just a regular massage!

https://manifold.markets/Jenny/will-i-get-a-massage-by-the-end-jan

@Tumbles All u gotta do is flip a no position here and pay off 1Mana worth...

@Robincvgr How do we interpret this masterpiece of a screenshot for this market option?

@Quroe @ManifoldPolitics can you please clarify if this means the loan to Tumbles is officially due? If so was it due May 4th or another date?

@HillaryClinton I can clarify. The loan did not come due, it had no due date. I simply suggested to Joshua while he was busting down doors performing mana seizures that he might as well take the loan back so that my account accurately displays my true net worth. So long as my account is unusable anyways it's neat seeing all of the debts consolidated into one number :P

As for how that should be interpreted for this market, I'm not sure, but those are the material facts

@Quroe I think the loan has been paid back. 1,400,000 mana went into Tumbles's account (from Manifold) some time ago. Now 1,400,000 has left Tumbles's account and gone back to Manifold. That's what repayment looks like.

The only logically consistent alternative is that he hasn't "paid it off" until his balance is positive again, but that's a pretty weird definition. That would require considering a negative balance as being a debt to Manifold. And if that's the case, then Manifold has loaned another "at least" 1,000,000 mana to Tumbles, because his balance is more than 2,400,000 in the red.

However you look at it, some of these answers need to flip.

@Fion Yeah, that's the interpretation I think some might see, but I'm not going to put skin in the game over a technicality out of fear of the person I'd turn into when I advocate for the angle shot.

My current opinion is that Tumbles has not paid off the loan. I think negative balances can be considered a "loan" from Manifold (mainly in that you have to pay it back to Manifold), and as Tumbles said, this largely just consolidated the Manifold loan to display in Tumbles' account.

@Nightsquared so what would it mean for him to pay it back now? Getting to zero net worth? Or just increasing net worth by 1,400,000 from the low point?

@Fion probably the second option

@HillaryClinton I swear I snatched that just before you by coincidence.

Literally traded within 1 second of each other.

@Quroe you got lucky. I sold off and re bought due to a bug in manifolds calculations.

I had this at 80% pre election

FYI Tumbles had -1,869,694 all-time profits on August 17th (when this market opened), so this resolves YES if tumbles has less than -3,269,694 in all-time profits at the end of the year.

@Nightsquared You can probably edit that into the option for clarity, something like:

Tumbles will lose it all before 2026 (all-time profit less than -Ṁ3,269,694)

@Nightsquared So this doesn't include user loans Tumbles has? Just what Manifold profit graph says?

That's correct. Although I believe Tumbles has already dipped below the threshold, since Pierre lost, but it's not yet showing this in his all-time profit

@Nightsquared Is this logic being continuously checked? Or are we only checking at end of year? (There's potential ambiguity between the words "before" from the market and "at" in "at the end of the year" from the thread opener comment.)

@Quroe It's continuous. I default to going with what the most salient description implies in these kinds of issues, which is the option description in this case. I was planning on allowing a small grace period so it wouldn't resolve based on fluctuations, but I don't think it matters at this point-Tumbles' profits is firmly below the threshold.

@HillaryClinton damn it. I sold it off because I thought I did my math wrong, since it wasn't showing...

@HillaryClinton Yeah, we were both snooping the same data and getting similarly confused.

@Nightsquared (BTW @Tumbles if you disagree I'd be willing to refund your loss here, since there was some ambiguity)