What will my probability be that these ocean regions have been kept cool by sulfur emissions from ships until 2020? | Manifold

What will my probability be that these ocean regions have been kept cool by sulfur emissions from ships until 2020?

Mini

5

Ṁ68

2028

66%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves to my probability on Dec 31, 2027. I don't promise to do much research, but I might.

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I might be writing my M.A. thesis on marine climates & biogeography in some of the affected regions, so if I find anything particularly relevant, I'll probably post it here.

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Related questions

What power sources will provide at least 10% of the energy used in maritime transportation in 2040.

Will more than 20% of all transoceanic freight/shipping be routed through the Arctic before 2050?

Will global CO2 emissions decrease in 2028?

Can international shipping achieve the IMO target of 20% reduction of GHG emissions compared to 2008?

Will the Gulf Stream system (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) collapse before end of 2030?

Antarctica cruise leading to oil spill? Before 2030

Will there be an Arctic Blue Ocean Event by 2030?