What will be true of the OpenAI / Jony Ive device?
21
Ṁ2033
Dec 31
14%
Has any screen
90%
Has notification LEDs
58%
Has a camera
4%
On sale to the public (no pre-order, no invite-only) before 1st January 2026
50%
US retail price <= $300 on launch
94%
Has a microphone
78%
Requires a ChatGPT Plus or higher subscription
15%
Is wearable
70%
US retail price <= $500 on launch
24%
On sale to the public (no pre-order, no invite-only) before 1st June 2026
45%
Will have a vibration motor for notifications
34%
Will come in >= 3 colors on launch
97%
Will have a battery
76%
Can play music from Spotify
97%
Requires a network connection
59%
Uses a normal OpenAI model (i.e. available through ChatGPT / API to non-device-owners)
40%
Designed to be worn on head (e.g. glasses, hat)
50%
Sells more than a million units within 12 months of its release
24%
Sells more than 5 million units within 12 months of its release
96%
Sells more than 100 thousand units within 12 months of its release

OpenAI acquired Jony Ive's io to build some kind of AI device. What will be true of the first device they release? This refers to whatever the first hardware product OpenAI + io release. If they release multiple devices simultaneously, each answer resolves YES if the answer is true of any of the devices.

  • Update 2025-06-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the 'Designed to be worn on head' answer:

    • Earbuds will be considered as 'worn on head'.

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7 Comments
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Designed to be worn on head (e.g. glasses, hat)
bought Ṁ10 Designed to be worn ... YES

@Noit do earbuds count as worn on head?

@256 yes

bought Ṁ10 Has notification LEDs YES

Great market!

bought Ṁ100 Has any screen NO

https://www.theverge.com/news/672357/openai-ai-device-sam-altman-jony-ive

bought Ṁ33 Is wearable YES

relevant market regarding wearability of device:

https://manifold.markets/ThomasPoltoranos/first-openai-io-hardware-product-we?r=VGhvbWFzUG9sdG9yYW5vcw

bought Ṁ10 Is wearable NO

@ThomasPoltoranos the verge link you posted seemed to suggest it won't have a screen

bought Ṁ10 Has notification LEDs NO

likely of interest
https://polymarket.com/event/will-openai-launch-a-consumer-hardware-product-by

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