arbitrage

@ProjectVictory Still Arbitrage

@MattPen

@AlQuinn man I'm sad they took away the dislike button.

@AlQuinn As is often the case, the main difference between Trump and an establishment president is style.

@AlQuinn

"When Trump said that it was a tragedy that people on both sides were dying, Zelensky interjected that the Russians were the invaders."

This is some real "Very fine people on both sides" bullshit. If an invader was coming in and killing my people and committing war crimes galore this would piss me off too.

"The argument started when Trump pointed out that it would be hard to make a deal if you talk about Putin the way Zelensky does. Vance interjects to make the reasonable point that Biden called Putin names and that didn't get us anywhere."

This is the same as someone in WW2 going: 'If you say mean things about Hitler when talking to us you might hurt his fe-fees and then he won't want to make peace with you'. (Spoiler alert: Hitler didn't actually want to make peace at all).

"He went back to his point that Putin never sticks to ceasefires, once again implying that negotiations are pointless. Why on earth would you do this? Then came the fight we all saw."

I dunno Dick, maybe its because Putin's word is trash, he constantly breaks agreements he makes, and Putin just uses ceasefires as a weapon?

Some real 🤡 talking points here.

What a wild interview between Trump and Zelensky.
Not entirely sure what will happen after this.

@IbrahimMohammedqcPt If the US no longer helps Ukraine, there is a strong chance that Ukraine won't be able to fight. I don't know how long they can hold, but even holding until the end of 2025 sounds like a lot.

European aid will likely increase in response, but it's unclear how much more the European countries are able to provide. Probably not that much.

Lots of ups and downs recently

Should be a big bump with the selection of JD Vance as VP combined with Trump's election odds.

I do not think that Ukraine gives up if USA cuts support, there is still support from europe, "survival mentality" on one side and russizm on the other. Neither of the 3 positions would be affected by US change of the course. And I do not think Russia is capable of utilising/profiting on the changes.

I would give only 0.5%-1% to the mentioned bump.

That's why I'm not betting to 100, but new evidence of bad things for them should move the market from its previous level.

You have bet from 20% to 35%, which is a relative 75% increase. Did you intend to do so?

The market was at the same point as late March, when the US election was a tossup and the Republicans didn't have a VP pick.