Will there be a country with Universal Basic Income by 2030?
Will there be a country with Universal Basic Income by 2030?
➕
Plus
89
Ṁ7900
2030
43%
chance

Only counting a countrywide scheme that includes all citizens of the country.

A partial scheme/pilot that only some citizens are eligible for doesn't count.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money


Sort by:
2mo

Did this market spike today on news? @NiplavYushtun @NeelNanda

@EricNeyman Not in my case, there was a bit of twitter discussion inspired by comments by @louis, which caused me to loop up markets, and see that they were (imho) mispriced.

9mo

Alaskan secession

1y

All citizens? But children are citizens of a country, and they would probably not be included in UBI. If it's all adults does that count?

predicts YES 1y

@ShadowyZephyr why wouldn't it include children? A mother of five has a bigger grocery bill then a mother of one.

1y

@CromlynGames Children (of some ages) eat a lot less than adults. More relevantly though, not every country wants to subsidize having children.

Seems like a decent chance that if this is implemented, children have a smaller stipend than adults.

1y

@CromlynGames

I’m not saying it SHOULD be the case, or that it’s fair, but I do think it’s likely that the first implementations of UBI will limit it to adults. I want the market creator to answer how they would resolve it in that case.

predicts NO 1y

@ShadowyZephyr They could decide to change the market description, but right now it does say all citizens

predicts YES 1y

@JimHays @ShadowyZephyr All citizens means all citizens. A system like Sweden's where children get a small amount of pocket money from the government would count. They don't have to receive the same amount as adults.

predicts YES 1y

@O Then you need to look up the definition of the Basic Income concept. It's Universal, and there should be no conditions to it's distribution.

1y

@Berg I'm going to upset people no matter what requirement I use. I tried to find a compromise between the two.

1y

@CromlynGames children often have different rights than adults, a 8 year old probably can't collect unemployment, or any welfare directly

1y

@horse I'll still count it if it's paid to the parents on their behalf.

1y

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with S Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.