So far humans have set foot on Earth and Moon. There are also some early plan to send humans to Mars. This question is about the next celestial body to be landed on by humans.
For this market to resolve, a human astronaut has to be on the surface of the celestial body, either inside or outside of a spacecraft.
Only celestial bodies which have a surface with surface gravity at least 10% g are considered. This excludes gas giants, asteroids and smaller moons.
In case the landing happens after the line between human and AI gets blurred, the entity that lands on the celestial body has to contain the whole human mind (or what counts as such at the time). Remotely controlled body doesn't count.
The option "Other" covers interstellar objects and potential undiscovered planets in Solar System.
If no landing happens before the closing date, the market will be extended or resolved to N/A.
I do not bet on my own questions.
Update 2025-26-01 (PST): - Landing Requirement: An astronaut must land at least briefly on the celestial body. Floating or gliding within the atmosphere does not qualify. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-02-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution Trigger: The market will resolve as soon as a human lands on any eligible celestial body (other than Mars).
Order Irrelevant: It does not matter if Mars is visited first; the first landing on any eligible planet or moon (other than Mars) will resolve the market immediately.
Eligible Bodies: Only celestial bodies with a surface (surface gravity at least 10% g) are considered.
@StepanBakhmarin It's about the first body other than Mars, not the first after Mars. As soon as any of these planets or moons is visited, the question will be resolved, regardless of whether Mars has been visited before.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen If smaller celestial bodies were included, it would probably be either some asteroid, Phobos or Deimos.
@HarrisonNathan I wanted to exclude hanging around some small asteroid or comet and needed to draw a line somewhere. 0.1g seems like a reasonable cutoff.