NVIDIA's Market Cap on Jan 1, 2026, in $ Trillions?
NVIDIA's Market Cap on Jan 1, 2026, in $ Trillions?
Mini
26
Ṁ1397
2026
4.6
expected

What will NVIDIA's market cap be on Jan 1st, 2026, in $ Trillions?
https://ycharts.com/companies/NVDA/market_cap

I'll use ycharts to resolve.

NVIDIA's market cap recently jumped to over $1B. If AI experiences a much larger takeoff in the next few years, NVIDIA seems likely to be one of the main companies to benefit from this.

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1y

Added liquidity!

predicts LOWER

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1y

Why did you rule out the option that it decreases from today? The current value should be more like the expectation value (up to inflation) instead of the minimum.

predicts HIGHER 1y

@LeonBohnmann That was unintentional, if there is some limit.

predicts LOWER 1y

@OzzieGooen Im also not sure how these work, but since the "HIGHER" bidders cannot lose more than everything (which they do on 1.0), I do not know where the extra profit should come from in case it was actually lower than 1.0.

predicts LOWER 1y

@LeonBohnmann The bounds are actually 0 - 100. Not sure why the graph shows 1.

predicts LOWER 1y

If you spam 9 in the "bet lower" box, it will show the real lower bound.

predicts LOWER

@travis Then why are "HIGHER" options so cheap? And how should 0 even work on a log scale? That's like unbounded losses for the "HIGHER" bidders. I think that preview below 1 is a bug.

predicts LOWER 1y

@travis Do you remember what you entered when you created the question? Because the maximum on that graph also jumps between 10 and 100 when I click it.

predicts LOWER 1y

@LeonBohnmann They never explained exactly how these work. They give this mapping formula in the API docs: (max - min + 1)^probability + minstart - 1

Maybe minstart is supposed to be min? I think the graph is wrong based on playing around with these two other numeric log markets:

When will Betelgeuse go supernova ?5822

What will the population of NEOM be in 2030?11k

predicts LOWER 1y

@travis Oh, I thought it was min*(max/min)^probability, as shown in their plots. Their formula at least allows you to put in 0 as a minimum and that explains why they cannot use the min and max for their plots.

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