Scheduled to resolve in 2030, but will resolve early as soon as one of these conflicts enters the Wars or Major Wars category on Wikipedia's List of Ongoing Armed Conflicts.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts
Note how Wikipedia classifies conflicts on the page, i.e. if a conflict falls short at the end of the year its relevant fatality count will reset. Otherwise, I will be fairly liberal with what counts as a conflict. So if the U.S. and Israel declare war on Iran at the same time, the question would resolve 50/50. Two belligerents fighting as part of a broader conflict with a different Wiki heading still count as long as their (para)militaries are actually fighting each other.
If yall really think that Azerbaijan / Armenia is that volatile then I've got great news! https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-armenia-and-azerbaijan-have-a-9417fe5850fd
@connorwilliams97 Kashmir has endemic fighting that Wikipedia considers an extension of that conflict, so its baseline is elevated. Also this is the first year it has increased annual deathtoll in a while.
