Scheduled to resolve in 2030, but will resolve early as soon as one of these conflicts enters the Wars or Major Wars category on Wikipedia's List of Ongoing Armed Conflicts.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts
Note how Wikipedia classifies conflicts on the page, i.e. if a conflict falls short at the end of the year its relevant fatality count will reset. Otherwise, I will be fairly liberal with what counts as a conflict. So if the U.S. and Israel declare war on Iran at the same time, the question would resolve 50/50. Two belligerents fighting as part of a broader conflict with a different Wiki heading still count as long as their (para)militaries are actually fighting each other.
Update 2025-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is evaluating if recent escalations, such as the direct conflict between Israel and Iran, could be interpreted as a belligerent 'actively rejoining' a broader, existing conflict.
If this interpretation is adopted, this could cause the broader conflict to meet the resolution criteria, even if the new escalation does not reach the 1,000-death threshold by itself.
The market has been temporarily closed to trading while this is discussed.
๐ Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
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The recent strikes between Israel and Iran are much more deadly and sustained than their exchange last year. I think it is accurate to say that they are at war; the headlines on CNN say as much. As this was one of the "subheading" conflicts at the start of this market, it is sufficient to say that Iran is actively joined, unambiguously and directly (not just through proxies) in a hot war with Israel.
Based on the simpler resolution criteria of this market compared to my later markets that clarified this situation (an already Major War-level conflict with a sub-page that escalates), I am closing the market and allowing a few days for anyone to argue this new development should or shouldn't count. Iran vs. Israel by itself is very far from 1000 deaths this calendar year, and hopefully won't come close. But if Iran is seen as "actively rejoining" the Arab-Israeli Conflict, that could be different.
Notably, last year's biggest flashpoint did not count, and there was no controversy over it not counting: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_airstrike_on_the_Iranian_consulate_in_Damascus
Thoughts? @traders
Dropping this here for consideration. (I hold 1,414 YES shares on this.)
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Israel conducts airstrikes on Iran, Netanyahu says targeted nuclear program
Israeli Strikes Kill Iranโs Military Chief, IRGC Commander, and Top Nuclear Scientists: Report
Israel's operation "will continue for as many days as it takes to remove this threat," Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a TV address.
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Iran launches retaliatory missiles into Israel, IDF announces
If yall really think that Azerbaijan / Armenia is that volatile then I've got great news! https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-armenia-and-azerbaijan-have-a-9417fe5850fd
@connorwilliams97 Kashmir has endemic fighting that Wikipedia considers an extension of that conflict, so its baseline is elevated. Also this is the first year it has increased annual deathtoll in a while.
