https://archive.is/cbWiA - "SpaceX Tender Offer Said to Value Company at Record $210 Billion"
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/11/spacex-valuation-surges-to-350-billion-as-company-buys-back-stock.html - "SpaceX valuation surges to $350 billion as company buys back stock"
Question resolves as YES if before December 12th 2025, there is a Bloomberg article that reports a SpaceX private tender sale, or post money VC investment valuation, or public valuation of more than $450B.
Update 2025-12-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): All qualifying valuations must be reported in a Bloomberg article, regardless of whether they are from an IPO, VC investment, or private sale. The "or public valuation" clause in the original description also requires a Bloomberg article to count.
Update 2025-12-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Plans or announcements of an IPO do not count - the IPO must actually occur and be reported in a Bloomberg article for the market to resolve YES. The creator has clarified that even though SpaceX announced plans for a 2026 IPO targeting a $1.5 trillion valuation, this does not meet the resolution criteria because the IPO has not yet happened.
There is a bloomberg article:
SpaceX is moving ahead with plans for an initial public offering ... targeting a valuation of about $1.5 trillion for the entire company
https://archive.is/20251210071825/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-09/spacex-said-to-pursue-2026-ipo-raising-far-above-30-billion
However, this has not happened yet. Plans for an IPO =/= IPO. Even though it seems obvious to me that the private value of spacex is >450b, the market conditions have not yet been fulfilled.
@PeterBuyukliev https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-13/spacex-sets-insider-share-deal-at-about-800-billion-valuation This just occurred, but it is on Dec 12th
@SolarFlare
"SpaceX is moving forward with an insider share sale that values Elon Musk’s rocket and satellite maker at about $800 billion
...
The per-share price of $421 in its latest secondary offering, laid out by Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen in the memo to shareholders, is nearly double the $212 a share set in July at a $400 billion valuation.
...
The company does tender offers twice a year, giving shareholders including employees the chance to cash in or buy more shares. In this case, SpaceX has set its fair market valuation in a precursor to an IPO next year."
In case anyone else is struggling with paywalls
https://archive.ph/20251213031942/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-13/spacex-sets-insider-share-deal-at-about-800-billion-valuation#selection-1615.0-1619.29
Note:
"Moving ahead" does not mean it has happened yet, and probably indicates it hasn't happened yet.
6 months on from July would be ~January 2026? This is obviously very vague about precisely when it will happen.
Note that question was created Dec 11th 2024 so the 1 year is up before this article dated 13th December. So, at least potentially, neither the Bloomberg article nor the insider share sale were in time. The way I understand creator comments is that both need to be before the 1 year deadline. Whether the one year deadline is Dec 11th with Dec 15 close date allowing some time for details to emerge or whether close date of Dec 15th is the one year deadline is not really entirely clear to me.
@creator this should resolve as yes.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/spacex-offer-insider-shares-record-185117449.html
@MRME
"The details, discussed by SpaceX’s board of directors on Thursday at its Starbase hub in Texas, could change based on interest from insider sellers and buyers or other factors, said some of the people."
Not finalised yet would be my guess from that. Might not complete by year end?
@MRME this doesn't seem like a completed sale, nor a Bloomberg article
Though it does seem more and more likely that this market will resolve "yes"
The new valuation puts OpenAI ahead of SpaceX, which is reportedly valued at $456 billion, with other notable companies including ByteDance at $220 billion and Anthropic at $183 billion.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/analytics-india-magazine_openai-has-reached-a-new-milestone-crossing-activity-7379779887311589376-52g4
@PeterBuyukliev
I am not clear on the "or public valuation of more than $450B", does that still have to be in Bloomberg article or does the 'or' make it a different separate case and what is needed for it to count as a public valuation?
@ChristopherRandles to clarify: there has to be a Bloomberg article on (ipo, or VC, or private sale)
Basically my thinking is that not any random rumour will get it's article; whilst if it happens for real, it will definitely get a Bloomberg article.
@PeterBuyukliev
Will this count?
https://forgeglobal.com/spacex_stock/
Forge price on 7 Nov 2025 $227.01
Forge Price valuation $429.48B
But on 6 Aug 2025 price was $250.21 so $429.48B/227.01*250.21 = $473.37B
Even if they don't get the upper stage of Starship reusable, it is already game-changing at this point from a $/kg to LEO perspective. It is going to take a while, but I think the rest of the world will soon realize the opportunity such lift capabilities offer and we will see much more tourism and space manufacturing (capitalizing on micro-g). For the record, the actual Mars stuff is a bit insane, but as a post-rationalist, having a crazy goal like that--to the extent it encourages innovation--is a good thing. The interest in the $350B valuation was very robust according to Musk (who doesn't lie), so I think this target is slightly more likely than not.