Which Org Causes AI Disaster?
13
แน€1012
2040
24%
xAi
15%
OpenAI
15%
DeepMind
9%
Anthropic
7%
US government
7%
Other
6%
Meta
5%
Chinese government
5%
Other government
3%
DeepSeek
3%
Safe Superintelligence

This market will resolve to the entity most responsible for triggering a YES resolution to the market "Does an AI disaster kill at least 100 people before 2040?" (https://manifold.markets/ScroogeMcDuck/does-an-ai-disaster-kill-at-least-1-73bcb6a788ab).

If no disaster triggers a YES resolution to the disaster market, this market will resolve N/A.

If it's unclear what entity is responsible for the disaster, I'll ask leading AIs for advice. If they don't provide a clear answer, I'll resolve it N/A.

I'm hoping this market will provide a little help in determining whether the AI disaster was due to recklessness at a single company, versus AI being generally dangerous.

#AI
#OpenAI
#AI Impacts
#AGI
#AI Safety
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6 Comments
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Does it count if their datacenter burns down with workers inside it due to it overheating while on full-tilt training an AI, or does it have to be an action by the AI's output?

Maybe an LLM gives inaccurate information such as safety information, which someone is then influenced by, causing a physical disaster such as a fire.

bought แน€5 Other government YES

Hard to see how OpenAI & co could do it, government systems seem like more of a fair bet, or systems in hospitals.

We are talking 100 die at once, like an aircraft crash? Rather than for example AI giving unsound medical advice occasionally causing harm, which is eventually estimated to have caused at least 100 deaths over lots of time.

@AlanTennant I'm delegating that decision to whoever resolves the market "Does an AI disaster kill at least 100 people before 2040?".

@PeterMcCluskey ok

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