Consider two possible events:
A large inflation of interest in AI. An explosion of interest in, and fascination with, AI, whether in a positive form (e.g. wonder) or a negative form (e.g. panic or rage). For example, another ChatGPT moment.
A large deflation of interest in AI- a rough consensus that AI was overhyped, culturally and or economically, and that a reduction of interest and/or investment is warranted.
It seems likely that one or the other will happen at some point, but which will happen first?
If it seems to me, based on my own judgement, or based on a clamour for it in the comments, that one of these has happened, I will put up a poll asking whether it has or it hasn't. If the poll judges that one of the two events has happened, this market will resolve that way. If not, we will keep going.
EDIT: A lot of the detail of how to interpret these will come down to the poll voters, however, I will say here, and I will say in the poll, that the intention is for the bar to be quite high. It's not an accident the example I've given is a ChatGPT moment.
How do you define "large inflation of interest"? I can find you AI related news from any month in the last couple of years that are excited and/or panicked about AI, I think there should be some criteria on what counts as large.
"consensus that AI was overhyped" consensus by whom? Also somewhat poorly defined.