Will Iran strike directly against Israel in 2024 following Israel’s 26th October 2024 strikes on Iran?
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62
Ṁ6474
Dec 31
53%
chance

Israel’s large and publicly acknowledged strikes on Iranian air-defence, missile production, and (at time of writing still unconfirmed) potentially also nuclear facilities at Parchin on 26th October have been met with a dismissive public statement response from the Iranian regime.

Will Iran respond directly against Israel again (as on October 1st 2024) , or attempt to stop the spiral by not retaliating directly, instead relying on proxies or even “doing nothing extra”?

Time bound for 2024. Any attack from Iran or Iranian forces (IRGC, Iranian Military, Navy included) against Israel proper will resolve to YES.

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bought Ṁ50 NO

Do attacks from foreign (i.e., attacks originating outwith Iran) Iranian-backed militias count?

@vitamind Nope. Direct attacks from Iran / Iran based systems. No Iran-backed militias in Syria, Yemen, Iraq, or Lebanon.

bought Ṁ350 YES

i am honestly baffled, it seems that they really want to attack, despite it is dangerous to them when they have an open sky.
wtf are they trying to gain?

Latest is that the Israeli 26th October strikes on Iran were much larger and more significant than Iran has claimed.

Despite downplaying the attack, there seems to have been significant damage to Iranian Air Defence systems at multiple locations (perhaps including damage to ALL of Iran’s most advanced air defence batteries - its S300s), critical missile production and missile solid fuel production facilities, and an oil refinery. Over 100 Israeli aircraft were involved, in three waves of attacks, and Israel warplanes (probably F-35 stealth fighters) entered Iranian airspace with no (apparent) losses.

Iran continues to downplay the attacks, albeit hedging and suggesting a right to retaliate