Will Alaska be decided by less than 5% in 2024?
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Will the final (i.e. last round in RCV) margin of victory of the candidate who wins Alaska in the 2024 presidential election be less than 5% of the total vote in the state?

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after final RCV? or first round votes?

@nikki of right, forgot about that. I updated the description

@PlasmaBallin are you willing to calculate it yourself, if someone gets 50%?

@nikki I assume you mean a situation where they get between 50% and 52.5% before the final round, so that the second-place candidate could theoretically have been within 5% after the votes are re-tallied?

Do they actually release data on who the second-place votes went to?

Do they actually release data on who the second-place votes went to?

Yes, but you need to calculate each ballot from the data

@PlasmaBallin Also it should be between 50% and 54.9%

@nikki

Also it should be between 50% and 54.9%

No, if they get 54.9% of the vote, the minimum margin of victory is 9.8%

@nikki If they release aggregate data that would allow us to tell how much the final round would have been won by had there been one, I'll go with that. If not, I'll go with the final round the votes are actually tallied for.