Will any Millenium Prize Problem (other than the Poincaré conjecture) be solved by 2030? | Manifold

Will any Millenium Prize Problem (other than the Poincaré conjecture) be solved by 2030?

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73

Ṁ6724

2029

51%

chance

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Resolves "yes" if any of the six remaining Millenium Prize Problems are solved before Jan. 1, 2030, and the solution is accepted by the Clay Mathematics Institute.

#Millennium Prize Problems

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Arbitrage

https://www.ft.com/content/72d2c2b1-493b-4520-ae10-41c1a7f3b7e4

Interesting that the probability of this has gone up lately. Maybe people think the room-temperature superconductor will help solve the Millennium problems.

Why'd everyone bet this so far down without also betting on the identical market in the comments? There's an easy dutch book now.

predicts NO

Dutch book opportunity:

This is the AI's interpretation of what a Millennium Prize looks like:

Millenium Prize

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