Netanyahu ceases to be prime minister before a permanent Israel-Hamas ceasefire is reached?
Netanyahu ceases to be prime minister before a permanent Israel-Hamas ceasefire is reached?
8
Ṁ235Sep 15
19%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves YES if Benjamin Netanyahu is no longer the Prime Minister of Israel before a permanent ceasefire agreement is reached between Israel and Hamas. It resolves NO if a permanent ceasefire agreement is reached while Netanyahu is still prime minister.
A permanent ceasefire is defined as a formal agreement between Israel and Hamas that explicitly states an end to hostilities without a specified end date (not a temporary pause). Netanyahu ceasing to be prime minister includes resignation, removal from office, electoral defeat, or any other means by which he no longer holds the position.
Resolution will be based on reputable news sources such as Reuters, AP, or official government statements.
Sources:
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.Get started for free! No credit card required.
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By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
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