Following Musk's 4/24/2023 promise
Note: this market resolves yes even if the device doesn't come from Neuralink, or doesn't use the same kind of tech at all.
May 23, 5:16pm: Clarifying that the market resolves Yes even if the device only treats some types of tinnitus: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tinnitus#Types
No efficacy minimum, only the requirement that in at least 1 country, the device is approved and available to the public. Please tell me if you can think of possible edge cases
4 years from first study submission (2018) to results (2022) per clinicaltrials.gov
Does anybody know what’s been happening since then. Device approval submission at fda?
Note as described for this clinical trial, the device is external. If it were Only bringing this external device to commercial availability, I might think 5 years plausible. But since this prediction market is specifically for implantables, would expect them to require substantially additional clinical trials to prove safety and efficacy - more than 5 years.