French, Polish, German and/or British troops deployed to Ukraine by end of 2030?
18
αΉ€610
2031
75%
chance

Any or all

#World
#️ Wars
#πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί Ukraine-Russia war
#Ukraine
#πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί Russia
Get αΉ€1,000 play money
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bought αΉ€10 NO

Base rate is few years per century. 5 years left. So 20% tops. Am I wrong?

@mariopasquato i don't even know what to say... "You are not even wrong"?

@hidetzugu do you have any arguments for disregarding the base rate here?

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