Bitcoin * $150,000 * 2026?
7
Ṁ353
2026
74%
below - in
62%
above - anytime after
50%
always below - during
50%
above - at end of
50%
below - at end of
50%
below - anytime after
50%
above - in
41%
above - by
26%
always above - during

Source of truth: Coinbase BTC-USD hourly or shorter high/low candlestick data.

"Above" means "at or above", so a price of exactly $150,000.00 counts as "above".

If timezones are cruxial for the resolution of an option, that option resolves to 50%.

Market close date will be extended after 2026 for the remaining "above/below - anytime after" option.

Note: "by" 2026 means "before" 2026. There isn't any option "by end of 2026".

If Coinbase data becomes unavailable or unreliable, alternative credible sources such as Binance or Coingecko will be used. If the data source choice is cruxial for the resolution of an option, that option resolves to 50%.

Please feel free to comment with a screenshot or link and @Primer when some option can resolve early and I missed it.

  • Update 2025-08-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - "in" and "during" mean the same for option timeframes.

    • "always above - during" and "below - in" are exact complements; arbitrage between them is intended to be safe.

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always above - during
bought Ṁ1 always above - during YES

@Primer just to confirm I'm reading these right, is this the complement of "below - in" ? i.e. "in" and "during" mean the same thing?

@deagol Yeah, you're reading this right. Honestly hadn't realized those are exact complements. Should be safe to arbitrage.

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