Will an LLM beat a Super GM Bot on chess.com by 2028? | Manifold

Will an LLM beat a Super GM Bot on chess.com by 2028?

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Ṁ4095

2028

49%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

The LLM must not be trained to play adversarially.

I am going with an academic definition of LLM (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Large_language_model)

All meaningful computation must be done on the network, thus Monte Carlo Search is disallow, but recurrent nets are allowed

Update 2025-06-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): An LLM that acts as an agent that uses tools or writes its own algorithm for depth search will not count towards a YES resolution.

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bought Ṁ50 NO

With the end of scaling I do not see How this question would resolve yes I think this is an easy NO

What if the LLM is an agent that uses tools and writes it's own algorithm for depth search?

@BBQDAD Does not count.

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