How much money will GiveWell raise, excluding from Open Philanthropy, in 2024?
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Plus
5
Ṁ9515
resolved Aug 14
100%99.0%
300-350m
0.1%
Less than 150m
0.1%
150-200m
0.1%
200-250m
0.1%
250-300m
0.1%
350-400m
0.1%
400-450m
0.1%
450-500m
0.1%
500-550m
0.1%
550-600m
0.1%
More than 600m

Background

GiveWell is a nonprofit that conducts in-depth research to determine the most effective charitable giving opportunities. In recent years, their fundraising has shown consistent growth, with approximately $253 million raised from donors excluding Open Philanthropy in 2022 and $255 million in 2023.

In April 2023 they made the following forecast, albeit with wide confidence intervals:

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve based on the total amount of money raised by GiveWell during the 2024 fiscal year (February 1, 2024 - January 31, 2025), excluding all funds from Open Philanthropy. The amount will be determined using GiveWell's official financial reports or public announcements.

Resolution will be based on:

  • Direct donations to GiveWell, whether or not they are re-granted to non-profits or not. For example, in 2023, this would resolve to $255 million, because that was the amount listed under 'Funds Raised' by GiveWell, though only $216 million were 'Funds Directed'

The following will be excluded:

  • Any funds from Open Philanthropy

Considerations

  • GiveWell's fundraising can be influenced by major world events, economic conditions, and shifts in donor behavior

  • Year-end giving typically accounts for a significant portion of annual donations

  • Changes in GiveWell's charity recommendations or research findings could impact donor behavior

  • The resolution amount may take several months into 2025 to be officially reported - GiveWell suggest at least 6 months, though their 2023 numbers were published on their blog in December 2024. So the deadline will be extended as necessary.

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opened a Ṁ6,750 300-350m YES at 99.0% order

Total raised was $415m, and Open Philanthropy gave $100-108m (it's listed as two line items where last time it was just one - but in any case that doesn't cross any of the market's answer thresholds)

So resolving to 300-350

https://files.givewell.org//files/metrics/GiveWell_Metrics_Report_2024.pdf

bought Ṁ1,250 300-350m YES