17% chance. [these resolution criteria are a work in progress for the next several days and may change. caveat mercator] This market resolves to YES if during 2025: People's Republic of China or affiliated military or maritime forces physically prevent vessel access to any of Taiwan's main ports (Kaohsiung, Keelung, Taichung, Taipei, or Hualien) And one of the following sources confirms a "blockade": AP, Reuters, Financial Times, NYT, Taiwan Defense Ministry, US Defense Department, Japan Defense Ministry, or NATO Edge Cases: "Military exercises" that meet the above criteria DO count, even if labeled as exercises Blockades starting in 2025 and extending to 2026 COUNT Failed blockades COUNT if China made a clear attempt meeting the criteria, even if Taiwan/allies successfully defended against it Blockade of outlying islands only (Kinmen, Matsu, Penghu) does NOT count Cyber attacks or economic sanctions alone DO NOT count without physical maritime enforcement