Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.
Resolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2030
Here are markets with the same criteria:
Will we get AGI before 2024?NO
Will we get AGI before 2025?NO
Will we get AGI before 2026?4%
Will we get AGI before 2027?17%
Will we get AGI before 2028?34%
Will we get AGI before 2029?52%
Will we get AGI before 2030?61% (this question)
Will we get AGI before 2031?66%
Will we get AGI before 2032?69%
Will we get AGI before 2033?69%
Will we get AGI before 2034?73%
Will we get AGI before 2035?74%
Will we get AGI before 2036?76%
Will we get AGI before 2037?78%
Will we get AGI before 2038?79%
Will we get AGI before 2039?78%
Will we get AGI before 2040?80%
Will we get AGI before 2041?81%
Will we get AGI before 2042?82%
Will we get AGI before 2043?83%
Will we get AGI before 2044?84%
Will we get AGI before 2045?87%
Will we get AGI before 2046?88%
Will we get AGI before 2047?89%
Will we get AGI before 2048?90%
Related markets:
Will we get ASI before 2027?6%
Will we get ASI before 2028?8%
Will we get ASI before 2029?12%
Will we get ASI before 2030?16%
Will we get ASI before 2031?32%
Will we get ASI before 2032?40%
Will we get ASI before 2033?48%
Will we get ASI before 2034?54%
Will we get ASI before 2035?60%
Other questions for 2030:
Will we discover alien life before 2030?8%
Will Earth have a Space Elevator before 2030?3%
Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2030?2%
Will Vladimir Putin be the leader of Russia at the end of 2030?43%
Will Xi Jinping be the leader of China at the end of 2030?62%
Will Kim Jong Un be the leader of North Korea at the end of 2030?59%
Will we get a cure for cancer before 2030?13%
Will a human walk on Mars before 2030?8%
Will the Dancing Plague return before 2030?16%
Solar system exploration questions:
Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2030?3%
Will there be a crewed mission to Lunar orbit before 2030?88%
Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2030?10%
Will there be a crewed mission to Jupiter before 2030?4%
Will there be a crewed mission to Saturn before 2030?4%
Will there be a crewed mission to Uranus before 2030?2%
Will there be a crewed mission to Neptune before 2030?2%
Other points of reference for AGI:
Will we get AGI before Vladimir Putin stops being the leader of Russia?50%
Will we get AGI before Xi Jinping stops being the leader of China?40%
Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again?33%
Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars?69%
Will we get AGI before we get room temperature superconductors?83%
Will we get AGI before we discover alien life?85%
Will we get AGI before we get fusion reactors?56%
Will we get AGI before 1M humanoid robots are manufactured?60%
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxoaiagi/openai-achieves-agi
65% on Kalshi for "If OpenAI announces that they have attained AGI by Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes."
This is ambiguous.
Are we talking average human level? Competent at task human level? Expert human level? Best in the world human level?
@ChrisLeong This market was always going to be subjective, but some kind of additional explanation would be nice.
@NoRespect I'm on the lookout for a set of criteria that are "necessary but not sufficient", along those lines. Ideally a set of criteria that there is a broad consensus on. My sense is that the goalposts will continue to move in the same direction as they have up until now, so necessary criteria should remain relevant
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why should I trade?
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.