Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.
Resolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2030
Here are markets with the same criteria:
/RemNiFHfMN/did-agi-emerge-in-2023
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2025
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 (this question)
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2031
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2032
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2034
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2036
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2037
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2038
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2039
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2040
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2041
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2042
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2043
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2044
/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045
/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046
/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2047
/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048
Related markets:
/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2027
/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2028
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2029
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2030
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2031
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2032
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2033
/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2034
/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2035
Other questions for 2030:
/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-217e4b895daa
/RemNi/will-earth-have-a-space-elevator-be-292c3a01b029
/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-dd5dc0576ff4
/RemNi/will-vladimir-putin-be-the-leader-o-52c0e8d8ea7f
/RemNi/will-xi-jinping-be-the-leader-of-ch-e48b02725ad9
/RemNi/will-kim-jong-un-be-the-leader-of-n-32f2cbfe20ce
/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor
/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-b78c73592440
/RemNi/will-the-dancing-plague-return-befo-d5d68a482594
Solar system exploration questions:
/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-v-4a5c4940b285
/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-l
/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-76d02d43aa2c
/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-j-d94ab8bbb580
/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-s-78e59fa4805f
/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-u-b7061eeb1c8c
/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-n-80f53d888d58
Other points of reference for AGI:
/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put
/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s
/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent
/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05
/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room
/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxoaiagi/openai-achieves-agi
65% on Kalshi for "If OpenAI announces that they have attained AGI by Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes."
@ChrisLeong This market was always going to be subjective, but some kind of additional explanation would be nice.
@NoRespect I'm on the lookout for a set of criteria that are "necessary but not sufficient", along those lines. Ideally a set of criteria that there is a broad consensus on. My sense is that the goalposts will continue to move in the same direction as they have up until now, so necessary criteria should remain relevant