Inflation, Unemployment, Retaliatory Tariffs, and trade deficit rise but they no longer matter. Spend another $20bn+ bailing out impacted domestic industries, Fed Deficit rises, but that no longer matter. Lobbyists making “contributions” will ve their industries exempted, that also won’t matter.

https://manifold.markets/DanW/will-a-ps5-cost-10-more-to-us-consu

I made a specific version of this market for the cost of a PS5, after reports surfaced that the price of consumer electronics might surge because of Trump's import taxes.

Voting with $:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/steve-madden-announces-plan-rapidly-move-production-out-china-following-trump-election-win

This already started after Russia invaded Ukraine, but an acceleration out of China will be good to the extent it damages China's economic growth.

@AlQuinn 🤦‍♂️It will also damage America's growth. Imagine trading the manufacturing of advanced goods for the manufacturing of shoes.

@DanW Worth it if the CCP is crushed

@AlQuinn Would crush the CCP more if the tariffs were targeted at just them, and not America’s allies too.

@JS_81 look at the political strife in europe: now is the time to threaten them in order to make our vassals--uhh...i mean allies--give us some concessions on trade and security.

"The Trade Expansion Act of 1962 (Section 232), the Trade Act of 1974 (Section 301), the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), and the Tariff Act of 1930 all contribute to the executive’s tariff authority. Both Trump and Biden invoked the Trade Expansion Act and the Trade Act of 1974 to levy tariffs, and Trump also threatened to use the IEEPA during negotiations with Mexico but didn’t have to because Mexico gave in anyway. There’s nothing really stopping Trump from instituting arbitrarily high tariffs"
https://substack.com/home/post/p-147546117?selection=7859f237-3391-424f-84b3-162f4ddc78dc#:~:text=The%20Trade%20Expansion%20Act%20of%201962%20(Section%20232)%2C%20the%20Trade%20Act%20of%201974%20(Section%20301)%2C%20the%20International%20Emergency%20Economic%20Powers%20Act%20(IEEPA)%2C%20and%20the%20Tariff%20Act%20of%201930%20all%20contribute%20to%20the%20executive%E2%80%99s%20tariff%20authority

@Joshgg The question then becomes, why didn't he last time?

@GazDownright reasonable people holding him back

@GazDownright He also gave a lot of tariff waivers to importers that were surely in no way related to Trump campaign contributions.

@MartinRandall This is the first I've heard that claim being made. For those interested in US trade policy (there are dozens of us!) , this is the basis of the argument:

https://www2.lehigh.edu/news/politically-connected-corporations-received-more-exemptions-from-us-tariffs-on-chinese-imports

@AlQuinn my understanding is that Biden did nothing to reform this obvious opportunity for corruption.

@GazDownright He did! Tariffs went up quite a bit. It's likely they'll further increase.

@Joshgg did he increase them close to 10%?

I made a pair of markets for the weaker question of simply whether tariffs will go up. Thanks for the interesting market and data source suggestion!

@MatthewYglesiasvuyf Welcome to Manifold!

@ManifoldPolitics Sort of sad that a man who makes his living through analyzing politics feels this might call his integrity in question, even without any real money on the line. In a perfect world buying shares would be no different from any other kind of expression of opinion.

I thought he wants to impose reciprocal tariffs on countries that impose tariffs on American products

https://rumble.com/v2vjk4w-agenda47-cementing-fair-and-reciprocal-trade-with-the-trump-reciprocal-trad.html