When will the New World Screwworm be eradicated in South America?
When will the New World Screwworm be eradicated in South America?
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8
Ṁ464
2050
6%
2023-2025
11%
2026-2028
11%
2029-2031
12%
2032-2034
10%
2035-2037
10%
2038-2040
10%
2041-2043
10%
2044-2046
10%
2047-2049
11%
2050 or later

This market will resolve to the choice containing the year in which the New World Screwworm is eradicated from South America.

This market is cause agnostic; if it happens via gene drive, larvae irradiation, pesticide application, etc it will resolve yes.

I define "eradicated" as a documented reduction in screw worm infections by atleast 10000x compared to the current (2023) number of infections.

Please feel free to ask clarifying questions in the comments.

See this post for context: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/JWuPdMaPiNy7AD3AX/potentially-actionable-opportunity-eliminating-the-new-world

Potentially actionable opportunity: eliminating the New World screwworm (flesh-devouring maggots that affect a billion animals each year) — EA Forum
In the latest episode of the 80,000 Hours podcast, Kevin Esvelt talks about the New World screwworm. He claims that there is a potential for a massiv…
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There's a new EAForum post!

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/bT3WrFn6H4fpvLSk8/policy-advocacy-for-eradicating-screwworm-looks-remarkably?utm_campaign=post_share&utm_source=link

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