When will there be credible evidence of an organism with a Gene Drive being released in the wild?
41
Ṁ1576
2040
15%
2024-2026
35%
2027-2029
20%
2030-2032
15%
2033-2035
8%
2036-2038
7%
Other

This market resolves to the bucket containing the year in which there is credible evidence of an organism with a gene drive being released into a wild population, with the intent to have it spread across the majority of that organisms natural range.

I do not require it to be released by a government or NGO, a rogue scientist eradicating Malaria/WNV carrying mosquitoes with one would totally count.

I may update the resolution criteria to better fit what I understand the spirit of the market to be. I will not bet in this market.

#️ Technology
#Science
#Effective Altruism
#Biology
#Biotech
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
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There's a new EAForum post!

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/bT3WrFn6H4fpvLSk8/policy-advocacy-for-eradicating-screwworm-looks-remarkably?utm_campaign=post_share&utm_source=link

See also this market: https://manifold.markets/RobertCousineau/when-will-the-new-world-screwworm-b?r=Um9iZXJ0Q291c2luZWF1

PS: all markets are assassination markets! Assassinate the mosquitoes or the screwflies and you too can profit!

I'll managram 10000M to anyone who eradicates mosquitos

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