
Will I still work on alignment research at Redwood Research in 2 years?
Plus
19
Ṁ7220Apr 27
88%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves to NO if I'm spending less than half of my working time doing alignment research at Redwood Research.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Sort by:
By "alignment research" do you include things like working on the alignment plan, or writing docs proposing alignment research directions? E.g. would writing https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PZtsoaoSLpKjjbMqM/the-case-for-aligning-narrowly-superhuman-models count?
Related questions
Related questions
Will I still work on alignment research at Redwood Research in 5 years?
51% chance
Will I still work on alignment research at Redwood Research in 3 years?
60% chance
Will Redwood Research still exist in 5 years?
53% chance
Will Redwood Research still exist in 2 years?
90% chance
Will I have a career as an alignment researcher by the end of 2024?
38% chance
Will Redwood Research still exist in 3 years?
68% chance
Will I have a research position at Anthropic (Research Engineer included) by the end of 2025?
14% chance
Will taking annual MRIs of the smartest alignment researchers turn out alignment-relevant by 2033?
7% chance
Will I have a research position at MIRI by 2025?
10% chance
Will I think that alignment is no longer "preparadigmatic" by the start of 2026?
20% chance