Will Claude 3.5 Opus beat OpenAI's best released model on the arena.lmsys.org leaderboard?
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resolved Aug 1
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OpenAI's best released model could be GPT-4, GPT-4o, or something else. It does not count as an OpenAI model unless it's made available to the public to try, and is known to be from OpenAI (e.g. the model can not be a secret, pseudonymous release). If arena.lmsys.org is not available at the time, the successor site or most similar leaderboard will be used.

Resolves yes if Claude 3.5 Opus is ranked above all OpenAI models 1 week after it is put on the leaderboard.

  • Update 2025-01-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Models must be listed on lmarena to be counted.

    • Examples:

    • o1 pro does not count since it's not on the arena.

    • Regular o1 does count.

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This is resolved to "nearly no" as it's not really fair to the question to resolve NA (Opus 4 did not beat o3), but technically, Opus "3.5" was never released (with that name).

If the model is not on lmarena, then it will not count. For example, o1 pro does not count now since it's not on the arena. Regular o1 does count.

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