Will CNSA's Tianwen-2 mission successfully rendezvous with an asteroid?
Will CNSA's Tianwen-2 mission successfully rendezvous with an asteroid?
Mini
3
Ṁ602030
73%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Tianwen-2 is an asteroid rendezvous and sample return mission, which is followed by a comet rendezvous. The probe is built by the China Academy of Space Technology (CAST) for CNSA, China's national space agency. The spacecraft is scheduled to be launched in May of 2025.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.Related questions
Will CNSA's Tianwen-2 mission successfully rendezvous with a comet?
75% chance
Will CNSA's Tianwen-2 mission launch before 2026?
71% chance
Will CNSA's Chang'e 7 mission successfully land on the moon?
90% chance
Will CNSA's Chang'e 8 mission successfully land on the moon?
76% chance
Will Astrobotic Technology's Griffin Mission 1 mission successfully land on the moon?
74% chance
Will CNSA's Chang'e 6 mission successfully return a sample from the moon?
99% chance
Will Tianwen-3 successfully land on Mars?
73% chance
Will ispace's Hakuto-R M2 mission successfully land on the moon?
73% chance
Will Astrobotic's Astrobotic Mission 3 mission successfully land on the moon?
55% chance
Which target will Tianwen-5 mission focus on?