Which target will Tianwen-5 mission focus on?
Which target will Tianwen-5 mission focus on?
Mini
2
Ṁ902030
1D
1W
1M
ALL
34%
Jupiter
28%
Neptune
14%
Saturn
11%
Uranus
1.8%
Venus
1.8%
Mercury
1.8%
Mars
1.8%
An asteroid
1.8%
A dwarf planet
1.8%
A comet
1.8%
I will not bet.
This will resolve when I am satisfied that we know the answer. This will presumably be when a mission plan is settled (for example, for a long time it was unclear whether Tianwen-4 would focus on Callisto or a wider Jupiter/Io mission, so I would have waited to resolve. Tianwen-4 apparently will send a secondary probe to Uranus, but it will "focus on" Jupiter.)
Any moons resolve to the planet they orbit.
Other is intended to cover objects that are clearly not already named. Trojans and Centaurs are asteroids. Kuiper Belt Objects would either be dwarf planets or asteroids (right?)
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
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