How active will the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season be?
12
Ṁ6798
Dec 1
12%
Below normal (ACE < 73)
56%
Near-normal ( 73 < ACE < 126.1)
23%
Above normal (126.1 < ACE < 159.6)
9%
Hyperactive (ACE > 159.6)

Activity is tracked in terms of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy. This Wikipedia page has a list of previous North Atlantic hurricane seasons by ACE.

If the value is 10 or more ACE away from one of the cutoff values, this market resolves in January 2026 to whatever value is listed on Wikipedia. If it is close to a cutoff, the market resolves after the reanalysis of all storms is completed (usually in April) to account for postseason adjustments in ACE.

The last ten years had the following activity:
Below normal: 2015
Near normal: 2022
Above normal: 2016, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2023
Hyperactive: 2017, 2020, 2024

The least active season in recorded history was 1914, while the most active season was 1933.

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#Climate
#Global Warming
#2025 Hurricane Season
#Hurricanes
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3 Comments
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bought Ṁ500 Below normal (ACE < 73) NO

Estimating from CSU+Interpolated Consensus tracks, Erin is forecast to reach Cat. 5 soon and so should add something in the neighborhood of 40 ACE by the time its done, bringing us close to 50 ACE by August 24 (which is ~ 2x the 1991-2020 climatology)

bought Ṁ10 Hyperactive (ACE > 1... YES

new CSU forecast today puts expected ACE at 140 (drop from 155 last month).

Strong Caribbean shear for June, July is given as main reason in a post to X.

bought Ṁ5 Above normal (126.1 ... YES

Doesn't seem like the sea temperature configuration is particularly favorable for activity this year but I am predicting above average again because that always seems to happen regardless

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