What will happen during the fourth run of Claude Plays Pokemon?
111
Ṁ98k
resolved Aug 7
Resolved
YES
Claude enters Rock Tunnel, surpassing its progress in any previous run
Resolved
YES
Claude obtains a Bicycle
Resolved
YES
Claude gives a thirsty guard a drink
Resolved
YES
Tumbles is late to pay back a loan
Resolved
YES
Claude adds 18 or more Pokemon to his Pokedex (surpassing his completion from the previous run)
Resolved
YES
Another model defeats the Champion before Claude (in a run started after Claude 4 was released)
Resolved
YES
Claude evolves SPIKE into Nidoking
Resolved
YES
Claude catches Oddish
Resolved
YES
Manifest begins
Resolved
YES
Claude finishes Rock Tunnel but takes longer than it took him to beat Mt. Moon the first time (50 hours)
Resolved
YES
Claude catches Drowzee
Resolved
YES
Claude enters Rock Tunnel before step 40000
Resolved
YES
Another model beats the Champion (following criteria like https://manifold.markets/Sketchy/in-progress-will-an-llm-become-a-po)
Resolved
YES
Claude reaches Lavender Town
Resolved
YES
Claude reaches Lavender Town before step 55000
Resolved
YES
Claude obtains a Coin Case
Resolved
YES
Claude spends less than 72 hours in Mt. Moon (less than 72 hr from first entrance to stepping onto eastern Route 4)
Resolved
YES
Claude's current team has at least 3 Pokémon by step 30000.
Resolved
YES
Lack of thinking text display is fixed before 5/22 6 PM Central Time
Resolved
YES
Claude obtains 3 gym badges by step 50000

https://www.twitch.tv/claudeplayspokemon

Claude Plays Pokemon is a Twitch stream where the AI chatbot Claude attempts to beat Pokemon Red. Once the game is reset, all remaining answers resolve NO, even if the stream continues with a new game.

I am N/Aing anything that is annoying to resolve. If I have to pore over multiple days of twitch VODs to figure out which way an answer resolves, I am not going to bother.

Changes to the harness between 3.7's runs and this one: https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vRIsu2pLI21W4KjfYbN13or8E-8cvJYw570wGMEp4UQU63ZhEh9FPGgj2ark8Yk7Vyrtt9MWq3jnn4h/pub


Some relevant milestones from the second run:

  • Reached Pewter City between steps 5000-5500

  • Escaped Mt. Moon at step 21496

  • Reached Vermilion City between steps 30500-32000

  • Obtained HM01 Cut between steps 55000-60000

  • Defeated Surge around step 61000

  • Obtained HM05 Flash around step 100000? (Unsure)

  • Update 2025-05-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer 'Claude uses Dig on the SS Anne', the creator has specified that this refers to Dig being used outside of battle.

  • Update 2025-05-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer 'Claude enters Mt. Moon after step 20000':

    • This condition is met if Claude enters Mt. Moon at any point after step 20,000, including re-entries.

  • Update 2025-06-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding a period where the stream was down and VODs are missing:

    • In the interim, answers for events that must have logically occurred during the downtime to reach the current game state will be resolved to YES (e.g., passing through a necessary town).

    • Developer logs, once available, will be used to resolve answers affected by the missing VODs.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

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bought Ṁ100 Answer #lI6SS52C6c NO

@SaviorofPlant all remaining bets resolve no

@BraydonDymm this is the last moment of Claude 4 Opus before the reset. Spearow remains unevolved.

@SaviorofPlant There's a big chunk of footage missing from yesterday, and Claude's notes now appear to indicate that he knows there is a Snorlax west of Celadon City (although this could be from training data). Did anyone see if he stood next to it?

edit: apparently stream was just down

Claude reaches Lavender Town before step 55000

@SaviorofPlant

From the logs:

"Saving temporary state at message 52279 to run_data/prod-opus-3/saves/temp_save.pkl"
...
"Location: LAVENDER TOWN"

Resolves YES

bought Ṁ20 Answer #zAyLLzcZs9 NO

Well, this is a mess now: the stream was down for several days, during which Claude finished Rock Tunnel, navigated through Lavender Town to the Underground Path, and reached Celadon City.

The dev is going to release logs that I can use to resolve answers, but in the meantime I'm resolving anything that must have happened in the missing hours to YES (e.g. Claude must have gone through Lavender Town to get to Celadon City)

@SaviorofPlant How does this resolve if he gets Pikachu as a Game Corner reward?

bought Ṁ20 Answer #dsnqgp0C0E YES

@WoahD_ resolves NO in that scenario, he has to catch a wild one

Claude finishes Rock Tunnel but takes longer than it took him to beat Mt. Moon the first time (50 hours)

@SaviorofPlant timer for this started about an hour ago

bought Ṁ650 Claude enters Rock T... YES

@SaviorofPlant at 38000 steps so the 40,000 should resolve yes

Claude has a BICYCLE. Can probably find clip if needed.

I don’t know if Claude is AGI, but I’m pretty sure twitch chat is not GI.

bought Ṁ100 Answer #AzUptqCnqn YES

@SaviorofPlant Spearow obtained and traded for Farfetch’d!

sold Ṁ119 Answer #AzUptqCnqn NO

@SaviorofPlant

CC hallucinated that Oddish cannot learn CUT and recommended Farfetch'd while Claude was in a battle with a wild Oddish

bought Ṁ100 Answer #NP06AnLyhO YES

@SaviorofPlant This is 755 steps away now and we are stuck trying to find the exit on the bow for now.

bought Ṁ947 Answer #hgz8QARdAA YES

@SaviorofPlant I sure hope this includes using it in battle, because I just dumped a 1k mana on this.

bought Ṁ10 Answer #hgz8QARdAA NO

@UnspecifiedPerson gooooood question

@UnspecifiedPerson oh i meant outside of battle but the answer doesnt clearly say that

if anyone bought a bunch of no i can N/A for ambiguity, otherwise i can resolve YES

@SaviorofPlant I bought no. I’d rather you N/A for ambiguity than resolve yes. It kinda sucks, because I correctly understood your intention and would have made a tidy profit on this resolving No.

@Driftloom my bad i should have included the phrase "outside of battle"

@SaviorofPlant To clarify, this is if he re-enters Mt. Moon at ANY point after step 20k?

Claude catches Oddish

@SaviorofPlant None of the members of Claude's team can learn Cut, so he will be unable to get into Surge's gym after getting the HM.

I believe Claude's only options now (after failing to catch a Paras in Mt. Moon) are to either catch an Oddish, or trade a Spearow for a Farfetch'd.

edit: he can also get a weedle on route 24 and evolve it to beedrill

reposted

A new AI has joined the race, someone has set up o3 with the Gemini harness: https://www.twitch.tv/gpt_plays_pokemon