Will Manifold think the new Claude is the best LLM available to the public after it releases?
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36
Ṁ2834Feb 21
71%
chance
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1W
1M
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This model resolves N/A if no new Claude model is released by April 1st, contrary to a recent The Information article.
I will run a poll 2 weeks after release and resolve this market to the most chosen answer in that poll (resolves 50/50 if it's a tie).
Any model released after the new Claude update will not be asked about in the poll. If the Claude update releases one day before GPT-4.5 or Grok 3, the poll will specifically ask users not to compare the two. If the models are released on the same day UTC, that counts as a concurrent release and they can be compared.
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