Will the U.S. capital be Washington, D.C. at the end of the decade?
Will the U.S. capital be Washington, D.C. at the end of the decade?
➕
Plus
17
Ṁ1421
2030
95%
chance
This question is meant to be sensitive to any change in the location of the core of the U.S. federal government. Therefore, it will resolve NO if any of the following are the case on Jan 1, 2030: * The capital city, as defined colloquially, is some city other than Washington, D.C. * The Supreme Court hears at least one-half of all cases in a city not Washington, D.C. * Either house of Congress meets primarily in a city not Washington, D.C. * The residence of the president is moved outside of Washington, D.C. * The Supreme Court, or either house of Congress, ceases to meet in-person at all, moving entirely online. If nothing of this sort happens, this question resolves YES. If the nature of Washington, D.C. changes (i.e. it finally gets conquered by Maryland), that's still a YES for this question, since it doesn't change the location of the capital. (Similarly if Arlington gets merged back into D.C..)
#️ Politics
#🇺🇸 US Politics
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
1 Comment
13 Holders
82 Trades


Sort by:
8mo

What event could possibly bring about circumstances for this question to resolve no?

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with S Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.

Related questions