Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the most successful independent US presidential candidate in the last 100 years?
35
Ṁ8232
Nov 6
3%
chance

Resolves YES if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. runs as an independent (or third party) and gets more of the popular vote than Ross Perot in 1992 (18.91%).

Based on Chamath's prediction in the latest All In podcast.

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Ross Perot did not get the highest vote share for an independent. He wasn't even number 1 in the 20th century.

Who did?

Theodore Roosevelt in 1912, 27.4%. There was also Horace Greeley, a dissident Republican endorsed by the Democrats in 1872, he got 43.8% but that questionably counts since it was the same two-party system in a way.

Not counting him but that's a cool fact

Why wouldn't you count him?

Wouldn't be fair to the people who bet already, since I mislead them in the description. I will change the title though.

Makes sense, thank you!

Does "independent" mean "not with the Democratic Party or the Republican Party"? He's already created the "We The People Party," because some states let candidates onto the ballot with looser restrictions if they have a party.

@ZaneMiller Yes third party counts too