@traders hear me out, I think this is a plausible scenario:

1. No majority to to any block to form a coalition (like the previous deadlock).

2. Opposition knows this means Netanyahu gets to keep the chair for a bit longer, so they make a deal with the Arab parties to momentarily form a government and then immediately dissolve it (so Netanyahu will not be incumbent in the following elections).

3. Arab parties agree on the term the interim PM will be someone more moderate than Bennet (possibly Lapid or Gantz).

Unlikely, but non zero chance.

WDYT?

If Naftali Bennett almost forms a government but then Idit Silman resigns from the government, does that count as Bennett being elected prime minister?

Just noticed that the question specifically talks about after the next election. What if a government can't be formed after the next election like happened multiple times in 2019-2021? Will it be resolved to the incumbent PM of the transition government?

Good question. I'll go with the first official PM after the next election (so if they can't form a coalition and go to another election I'll wait for that one).

Why is the incumbent Netanyahu at such low odds?

He's doing badly in polls, has had massive weekly protests against him for most of his term, and completely dropped the ball on the country's biggest national security disaster in fifty years.

Yeah I don't think I've seen a single poll with the coalition at 61 seats since 10/7

Israeli politics is pretty favorable to charismatic newcomers; Lapid and Gantz both got the 2nd largest Knesset party in their first elections, IIRC. It didn't get them the prime ministership though, with Netanyahu running against them and being a much more talented politican then both. Yossi Cohen can run no earlier then June, in any case. I'd take NO at 8%, but it will be interesting.

https://manifold.markets/manifoldaccount/who-will-be-in-the-israeli-governme

Who will be in the Israeli government following the next elections?

Related:

@0482 see also https://manifold.markets/manifoldaccount/who-will-be-in-the-israeli-governme

In case of rotation, is it the first it 50-50 split?

@0482 In case of rotation this settles to whoever goes first (I think that's more consistent with "first post-election PM").

You got to be kidding

@0482 more likely than bibi staying imo

@EliasShammas fair enough, let the best bet win

@0482 everyone's assuming that there will be movement to the left or no movement. rightward movement is a possibility. Bennet is the most likely candidate, but i would say smotrich could happen in a nightmare scenario

@EliasShammas I agree it's not impossible, but he was at 20%+ for a while which seems unreasonably high (the current odds make more sense).

Since some people have been betting on "other"; note that it's very unlikely to win since people can add new likely-seeming candidates until the election.

@ShakedKoplewitz the information mark over "other" says that new answers are split from this answer. Not sure exactly how this works (does it split 50-50?) but seems like betting on other does something.

@BaryLevy huh, guess I don't understand how "other" works then

@BaryLevy I bought "other" before. Now I have a similar payout for Smotrich (which was not listed when I bought "other").

I think it is just doing the fair thing - paying for any option not listed at that point in time

@NivCohen I bought "no" on other but don't currently have any (although I do seem to have some "yes" on Bibi and Lapid now, which I didn't buy). So I'm guessing buying yes/no on "other" just automatically translates to owning the corresponding amount of yes/no shares on the other currently existing candidates.