Will a new UK political party gain 50+ seats by the end of 2028? (In the house of commons)
Will a new UK political party gain 50+ seats by the end of 2028? (In the house of commons)
➕
Plus
15
Ṁ1934
2029
13%
chance

Inspired by Dominic Cummins' - The Startup Party.

Voters will increasingly demand change, the old parties can’t/won’t supply it and this will be even more intense by 2028. ...the next two years will see a hideous election showcasing the rot of the old parties, ) the old parties don’t want to supply it and couldn’t if they tried — the best possible environment for a startup to challenge incumbents. Somebody will seize this huge opportunity, for good or ill. - Dominic Cummins

Resolved by: December 31st, 2028, or whenever a new UK political party gain 50+ seats before
Sources: Electroal Commission, BBC and other equivalent sources.
"Doesn't count": Regime change, name change of existing party (doesn't apply if they never held a seat before) / rebranding, usage of royal perogative (thou impressive nonetheless).

2023.10.27 6:19 p.m. GMT - Adjusted so that "new" also refers to existing parties if they have never held a seat before.

#️ Politics
#UK politics
#🇬🇧 UK
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
2 Comments
14 Holders
22 Trades


Sort by:
1y

Just checking: new party means registered with electoral commission from market start? Or merely “never held a seat before”? So if e.g. Monster Raving Loony won 50 seats, would they be counted as new given they’ve never held a seat before?

@Noit Good question. I now feel like a strategy adjustment from an existing party that has never held more than 0 seat should also count. Because it would be such a monumental adjustment in strategy that it might as well be considered as a new party. I will adjust the description accordingly.

Also, a neat/possible way to deploy a new party would be to latch onto a smaller party's existing infrastructure instead of going through all of the stuff yourself potentially.

TLDR: Monster Raving Loony would count in this case.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with S Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.

Related questions