Russians are going to the polls this week to vote for their President:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Russian_presidential_election
The election is widely considered not to be free or fair, and Putin is expected to win comfortably as a result of fraud, intimidating voters, choosing which candidates can run against him and actions against his political opponents which go as far as murder.
According the official results, how much of the vote will Putin win?
Previous results:
2018 - 77.5%
2012 - 64.3%
2004 - 71.9%
2000 - 53.4%
Related market - when will Putin leave office? /SimonGrayson/when-will-putin-cease-to-be-the-pre
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The results are in. The election was not free or fair, but official results have been published and Putin "won" 87% of the vote. This market resolves to 85% to 90%.
When will Putin be removed from power? Will the next election take place as planned in 2030? Predict here:
@CyfralCoot multiple candidates were disqualified for no good reason. (They'd be meaningfully competitive, you see.) Plenty of potential candidates and their organizations are already prosecuted or declared illegal for no good reason. There was a wide-scale campaign to coerce goverment employees into voting for the candidate. Reported voter statistics in many regions were noticeably unrealistic, with the inference that there was a lot of freedom to allocate fake votes by non-existing or dead people. It is generally believed that electronic voting results are not connected to reality.
@mxxun on top of that, statistical analysis demonstrates massive falsification in purely on-paper voting. There's an estimate of 22 millions of fabricated votes. My napkin math says that's 30-50% of total votes, depending on assumptions about Russian demographics and voter turnout.
Behold e.g. the graph of # of votes cast at election posts with a given turnout:
As they say, with good enough data you don't really need to do statistics on it.
Podmoskovie exit poll. Moscow is the most oppositional city, so Putin's score elsewhere is expected to be higher.