UK General Election 2024 - Will any Tory candidates defect and run for Reform UK?
49
Ṁ15k
resolved Jun 9
Resolved
NO

A feature of the last Parliament was the constant rumours that Conservative Party MPs were going defect to Reform UK. In the end, Lee Anderson was the only one who actually did!

Once again, there have been rumours this week of Conservative candidates defecting to Reform off the back of their big relaunch.

Will either of the following run as Reform UK candidates?

  • Outgoing Conservative MPs (ie. people who were MPs until Parliament dissolved last week and were most recently sitting as Conservative MPs)

  • Anyone who has been officially announced as the Conservative Party candidate for any constituency in the general election, whether they then run in the same constituency or a different one

For this to count, they must formally register as the Reform UK candidate. It will not be sufficient for them to announce their defection to Reform if they are still appearing on the ballot as a Conservative or an independent.

Former MPs will not count for this market if they left Parliament before the end of the most recent term.

Nominations/registrations close at 4:00 on Friday afternoon so we should have an answer pretty quickly!

Related markets:

/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-2024-will-refor

/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-2024-who-will-f

/SimonGrayson/will-reform-uk-get-over-4000000-vot

/SimonGrayson/general-election-2024-where-will-ni

Other general election markets:

/SimonGrayson/will-the-conservative-party-win-few

/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-2024-how-many-s-qzm55nj4xt

/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-2024-will-there

/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-2024-will-there-yk246fcxcw

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ1,087
2Ṁ302
3Ṁ241
4Ṁ163
5Ṁ120
Sort by:

@traders Registrations are now closed meaning that anyone who wants to try to defect now would be unable to change the party they appear as on the ballot.

I’ve looked for any defections and I can’t find any. Would anyone like to challenge that before this resolves to NO?

@SimonGrayson Did a deep dive (hoping there was 5k on the table) and turned up nothing