The market believes that there's an 85% chance that Taylor Swift will endorse a candidate for the 2024 Presidential election:
/ByrneHobart/will-taylor-swift-endorse-a-us-pres
The assumption is that this year's election will be between Biden and Trump and we can safely say from Swift's previous positions that she would strongly prefer Biden in this matchup.
When will she make an endorsement? Will she wait for Biden to tie up the nomination? Will she make the endorsement at a time that boosts her own business interests (eg. getting a lot of media coverage right before a major launch)?
Will she hold her endorsement back until Biden makes a pledge on an issue she cares about?
For the sake of consistency and arbitrage, this market will resolve the same way as /ByrneHobart/will-taylor-swift-endorse-a-us-pres in terms of defining whether there has been an endorsement. If Swift has not endorsed anyone by the time the polls close, the market will resolve to "she will not endorse a candidate".
๐ Top traders
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@traders Swift has pretty unambiguously endorsed Harris!
This resolves to September.
She has no particular reason to endorse a candidate this time around at all. But the campaigns โ well the Biden one anywayโ have plenty of incentive to ride her coattails stoking speculation about her endorsement.
Safe to assume Swifties not a Trump-friendly demographic. If she wants to see him out of power she could just encourage everyone to vote and avoid the wrath of MAGAs. The ones who are not already mad at her that is.