Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point in the future, a SpaceX Starship upper stage equipped with Raptor 2 engines is successfully caught upon return to Earth. A successful catch is defined as the upper stage being captured by the launch tower's mechanical arms, commonly referred to as "chopsticks," without causing significant damage to the vehicle or infrastructure. Verification of such an event will be based on official announcements from SpaceX or credible news sources reporting the successful catch.
This market will resolve to "No" if a Starship upper stage is launched with Raptor 3 or later engines before a Starship upper stage has landed, unless there is evidence that SpaceX plans to fly additional flights using Raptor V2 engines.
Update 2025-08-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The creator plans to resolve this after IFT-11.
If by then it's clear there will be no further Raptor 2 hardware, the market will resolve No (unless a successful catch has already occurred), even if no Raptor 3 upper stage has launched.
@traders Unless someone objects, I'm planning to resolve this after IFT-11. It's quite clear that there will not be any further Raptor 2 hardware after that. If I don't hear from anyone after a few days, I'll update the description properly.
Note that there are just 2 more in-progress ships and boosters that are designed for Raptor 2 engines. All of the hardware that has been started more recently is designed for Raptor 3.