Resolves according to the estimate for total turnout on Wikipedia, according to whatever count is cited the most prominently (this includes the organizer estimate, if most prominent).
For No Kings 1:
Organizers estimated that more than five million people participated
The No Kings 2 protest is scheduled for Saturday, October 18.
Update 2025-10-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The phrase "more than five million" from the first protest will be treated as slightly larger than 5 million (approximately 5-5.5 million range)
If the counts are close enough that exact values matter, the creator will assess the language and estimates in Wikipedia articles and wait for estimates to settle
Ties resolve NO (soft lean, since "outnumber" implies a tie is not sufficient)
The first protest drew between 2 and 5 million participants across roughly 2,000 U.S. locations, ranking it among the largest single-day demonstrations in the country’s history .The upcoming second protest, according to Indivisible and partner organizations, already has over 2,500 planned events nationwide — about 25% more locations than the June protests . MSNBC and Time report that the number of participating cities and organized coalitions “already exceeds the first” and that a record turnout is expected, amplified by the concurrent government shutdown and expanded union involvement.
@MichaeldelaMaza Unfortunately no. I would default to treating that as "slightly larger than 5 million", ie, in the 5-5.5m range. If it's close enough that the exact value matters, I do my best to assess the language and estimates in the wikipedia articles (and wait a while to see how estimates settle). I'll give an extremely soft lean towards NO since the title uses the phrase "outnumber", which implies a tie resolves NO.
I'm not going to bet on this market, if that helps.