Will AI image generating models score >= 90% on Winoground by June 1, 2025?
Plus
24
Ṁ1020Jun 2
77%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Based on the recent discussions between Gary Marcus and @ScottAlexander, this market resolves as follows:
IF any AI image generating model (such as DALL-E, Imagen, Stable Diffusion, etc) scores 90% or more on the Winoground image composition test, this market resolves YES.
ELSE this market resolves NO.
Relevant Links:
Scott's post: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/i-won-my-three-year-ai-progress-bet
Gary's post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/did-googleai-just-snooker-one-of
Winoground: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2204.03162v2.pdf
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
72% chance
Will an AI model outperform 95% of Manifold users on accuracy before 2026?
57% chance
Will any AI model achieve > 40% on Frontier Math before 2026?
80% chance
Will an AI image generation model successfully generate a proper chess board by July 31, 2025
67% chance
Will OpenAI models achieve ≥90% on SimpleBench by the end of 2025?
41% chance
Will any AI model score above 95% on GRAB by the end of 2025?
42% chance
Will any AI model score >80% on Epoch's Frontier Math Benchmark in 2025?
18% chance
Will AI pass the Winograd schema challenge by the end of 2025?
86% chance
AI generates better alt text for 90% of test images by June 30, 2026?
61% chance
Will an AI score over 80% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025
22% chance