Will MetroCard be phased out by the end of 2025?
Will MetroCard be phased out by the end of 2025?
➕
Plus
24
Ṁ5149
2026
82%
chance

The MetroCard used by public transport in New York City is being replaced by a modern fare system called OMNY. This replacement has faced multiple delays, with the most recent estimated completion date of 2025.

This market resolves yes if the MetroCard is no longer available to purchase from all NYC Subway stations. This does not include PATH stations, airports, LIRR/MNRR stations, etc. Being able to purchase a MetroCard from a merchant/illegally does not count.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money


Sort by:
2mo

From December:

Meanwhile, a date for the official retirement of MetroCards, commemorative or not, is still to be determined.

bought Ṁ10 NO1y

This is way too optimistic that New York can do an infrastructure project on time

1y

Can you clarify "all MetroCard vending machines", i.e. whether that means all currently (March 2024) operational ones? What about machines that are being torn down?

I also know a machine that's been in "Single Rides Only" mode for a while now, which would technically already resolve this to YES today, but that's clearly not the spirit of the question.

1y

@lxgr I have cleared up the resolution criteria to exclude anything regarding the vending machines, it will be based on whether a MetroCard can be purchased.

Single ride only would resolve NO since it is a MetroCard.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with S Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.