Context: This market is based on a $10,000 bet between Tamay Besiroglu and Mike Knoop. Mike claims that "2024 program synthesis is like 2012 deep learning and that ps will grow in a matching way over the next 10 years like deep learning grew in the 2010s." As of October 2024, 'deep learning' is at 100, while 'program synthesis' is at 1 on Google Trends.
Original bet announcement: https://x.com/tamaybes/status/1850672754426855525
Figure, relative search volume. As of October 2024, ‘deep Learning’ is at 100, and ‘program synthesis’ is at 1.
Resolution: This market resolves according to how Tamay and Mike mutually agree to resolve their bet. If they disagree or don't publicly announce their resolution, the following criteria will be used:
Using Google Trends data as of December 31, 2029 at 11:59PM PT:
Resolves YES if none of these search terms:
'discrete program search'
'program synthesis'
'discrete program synthesis' reaches a monthly average value of 75 or higher on Google Trends between November 1st, 2024 and December 31st, 2029, when compared against 'deep learning' using this exact URL and settings: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=deep%20learning,discrete%20program%20search,program%20synthesis,discrete%20program%20synthesis&hl=en
Resolves NO if any of these terms reaches or exceeds 75 in monthly value during the specified period.
Resolves AMBIGUOUS if Google Trends is discontinued or no longer supported by Google before the resolution date.
Technical Resolution Details (if needed):
Monthly values will be determined using the CSV file downloadable from Google Trends
If monthly CSV data is unavailable, values will be calculated by averaging weekly data points within that month
A month's value must be determined using at least 2 weeks of data to be considered valid