resolves YES if jim's score is greater than bayesian's score
50% of tied
Update 2025-02-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Update:
The winning score is determined by the sum of peer scores across all ACX 2025 Prediction Contest markets.
The contest outcome is decided based on whose total peer score is higher.
@Bayesian the winner of this contest is determined by who has the highest sum of peer scores accross the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest markets
@Bayesian yes but this is just our scores for resolved questions, not the questions in the 2025 contest
@Bayesian frankly my comment is tongue-in-cheek tho, one pretty much gets a better peer score by just updating one's predictions more frequently. Which we can't do in this contest because it just takes our predictions as of jan 31 and ignores any updates we make.
@jim one interesting thing about this contest is that the questions skewed less likely than average by a decent amount:
community average was ~38%, my average was ~36% across questions. There's basically no reason this should happen because you could easily phrase questions in the negative ("this won't happen" vs "this will happen") so I thought this was interesting
@benshindel your predictions are very different to mine. Where you deviate from the community in one direction, I generally do in the other...
@jim Lol, I predicted 90% for Elon being the richest person. Do you expect Tesla and SpaceX to crash that badly?
@TimothyJohnson5c16 there's two parts (1) I don't expect Tesla to do that well, could stagnate / decline (2) I expect some massive gains for others from AI companies. Meta, Amazon, Oracle, Alphabet
@nikki just a feeling, also base rate didn't seem that bad for presidents that start in the same area as Trump
@jim why are you so low on the Polymarket real-money betting question? That was one that I had a lot of uncertainty about and heavily hedged towards 50%