If Joe Biden becomes the Democratic nominee, will he win the 2024 election?
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Joe Biden is the current President of the USA, elected on a Biden/Harris in 2020 in a presidential race against Trump/Pence. He has stated to CNBC that he intends to run for reelection again, as an incumbent (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/25/2024-presidential-election-joe-biden-expects-to-run-for-reelection.html).
One consideration for the Democratic party when choosing a nominee is how likely they are to actually win an election. I thus ask how likely Biden is to win the presidency, if he does run for reelection and is chosen as the Democratic the nominee.
This resolves N/A if Joe Biden is not the Democratic nominee, and YES or NO depending on whether he becomes the president if he is the nominee.
Jan 14, 11:02pm: #Politics #USPolitics #2024USPresidentialElection
Jan 15, 5:44pm: #JoeBiden
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I see bets that have no fees and contain 'sale' props, maybe this is an old misconverted dpm market, @JamesGrugett?
seems like a good assumption - Tetra created this market all the way back in Jan '22 (is this one of the first markets ever??)
@JamesGrugett any alternate way to NA this one?
@shankypanky James left Manifold, but I bet we could fix this if @ian is able to run a script to add the missing properties to all the objects associated with this market. 🙏 We can do this!
See electionbettingodds.com's estimates of P(president|nominee) for candidates, currently 51.7% for Biden https://electionbettingodds.com/ElectabilityDEM.html
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