I'm thinking of a specific real person or fictional character. Let's see if you can guess who it is!
CURRENT PRIZE VALUE: Ṁ500
Rules:
At market closing time (and not before), if someone has added the person I'm thinking of to the market, it will resolve to the person. If the person I'm thinking of has not been added to the market, the closing time will be extended for another week.
Each user can ask one yes/no question in the comments every 8 hours, and I will try to answer in a timely manner. The answers I give will be limited to "yes," "no," and "unknown."
If your question does not follow the parameters I've set, or if it has too much gray area/a simple "yes" or "no" would be misleading, I will reply with "rephrase" and a brief snippet on what needs to be clarified. You do not need to wait 8 hours to rephrase your question.
I may refuse to answer meta questions ("has the person already been added to this market," "does the person’s name have X number of letters," etc.) at my discretion.
If you have a guess for who I'm thinking of, add your answer to the market. (I will not answer point-blank questions along the lines of "is it this specific person.") You may add as many answers as you like; initial liquidity is low to facilitate addition of answers.
The user who adds the correct answer will receive a prize upon resolution of the market. The prize starts at Ṁ500 and decreases by Ṁ100 each time the market closing time is extended, with a minimum prize value of Ṁ100.
I will not bet in this market.
Check out the WAITO dashboard for other ongoing and past iterations of this kind of market, including a list of the answers to my previous rounds.
Is the original actor or actress who portrayed this character still alive?
Does this character appear in a game developed by telltale games.
We know:
- Female
- Fictional
- Younger than 40
- Originally from a movie or TV show
- Is a character in a video game developed after 2005
Suggested directions (focus on things that narrow possibilities about 50/50)
- Which TV show / video game?
- When was the TV show released?
- Genre?
- Protagonist/antagonist?
- Culture/ethnicity?
- Key events that occurred to the character in the story
Is this person a character in a video game developed after 2005.
Ok, so we know:
- Female
- "Not a real person with a wikipedia page" (unclear if this just means "no wikipedia page" or "not real")
- younger than 40
I just bet that we'd find it (no on 'other'). If the whole of manifold can't win a game of 20 questions in 6 days, I will be sad about humanity.
Commenters should probably aim to ask for things that are about 50/50 splits of the remaining space, rather than long shots. Some ideas:
- Narrow down age?
- Narrow down culture/ethnicity?
- Narrow down fictional origin (video game, movie, comic, myth, )
- Narrow down time of creation (if fictional) or birthdate
- Narrow down story genre (scifi, real world?)
- Protagonist/antagonist/supporting
- Alive at end of story?
For my question:
Using the interpretation you meant when you typed "A specific real person or fictional character" in the market description, is it a fictional character?
@DannyqnOht How did you think it works? That will get you a payout if it resolves to any guess added after you bet.
@moobunny I thought if I bet "no" on "other", it would sit there on other no matter who got added; so I thought it was a bet "we'll eventually solve it".
It seems this was not the case.
When new people are added, my "no other" suddenly seemed to turn into "yes" on all those new people. When more new people were added, I didn't seem to get any more new yesses.
(I'm pretty sure. That seems to be what happened to me anyway; I think I'm just tracking something very wrong & I'm very confused.)