Resolves to the next Manifold user who:
Owes at least 100k mana to other users
Has a negative net worth for their account before including those loans
At my sole discretion, I may refuse to count blatant attempts to manipulate this market. For example, borrowing 100k mana and then sending it all to an alt account would not count.
This is all meant in good fun. If your account is added and that makes you uncomfortable for any reason, DM me and I'll N/A that option.
Update 2025-11-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The close date is tentative and will be extended until a resolution result is achieved (i.e., until someone meets the criteria of owing at least 100k mana with negative net worth).
@snazzlePop @TimothyJohnson5c16 please rename to @realDonaldTrump, the one that's there is my temporary username
I am following in tumbles footsteps and using borrowed mana to bet against my own downfall
@TimothyJohnson5c16 I owe Bayesian 82k or something before Jan 15. Nothing major. It’s basically entirely in this market which will either resolve YES or NA /MikhailTal/chinas-rebar-failure-rate-below-20
@realDonaldTrump Unfortunately I don't have a way to N/A individual options in linked MC, just the whole market. 😭
One coin flip to decide if Evan can pay back his loans: https://manifold.markets/Traveel/daily-coinflip-cPA6RUCgnP.
Evan might be in trouble here: https://manifold.markets/evan/will-i-ever-be-late-to-pay-back-a-l?play=true
@TimothyJohnson5c16 hmmm, Evan is in quite the position. Owes 100k, but not a negative balance. He needs to decide if he wants to salvage the situation or go all in.
@HillaryClinton It could be a big profit opportunity if he takes the Tumbles route of betting on his own solvency 😂
@HillaryClinton The funniest part is, he's almost certainly going to be promoted to masters league. I guess his losses were unranked.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 Yep. that self referencing 60 median market was unranked. I think it's also harder to go negative these days due to the 5% cap per market on loans.