Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the individual whom President Donald Trump officially announces as his nominee for the next Chair of the Federal Reserve. The announcement must be made through an official channel, such as a press release from the White House or a public statement by the President. The market will resolve upon the official announcement, regardless of the subsequent confirmation process by the Senate.

Background

As of July 4, 2025, President Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, criticizing him for maintaining higher interest rates. Reports indicate that Trump is considering announcing Powell's successor earlier than usual, potentially by September or October, to influence monetary policy decisions. Potential candidates reportedly under consideration include:

• Kevin Warsh: Former Federal Reserve Governor and current Distinguished Visiting Fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution.

• Kevin Hassett: Director of the National Economic Council and former Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers.

• Scott Bessent: Current U.S. Treasury Secretary and former hedge fund manager.

• David Malpass: Former President of the World Bank.

• Christopher Waller: Current Federal Reserve Governor.

These considerations come amid ongoing tensions between the White House and the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policies.

Considerations

The Federal Reserve Chair serves a four-year term, and the current Chair, Jerome Powell, is set to serve until May 2026. While the President can nominate a successor, the nominee must be confirmed by the Senate. Announcing a successor well before the end of the current term is unusual and may influence market expectations and monetary policy decisions. Traders should monitor official communications from the White House and reputable news sources for updates on the nomination process.